2012 Election

Some Morning After Reaction to the 2012 Election

Nov 072012

2012 Election

Some morning after reactions from Election Day 2012:

I noticed a big difference from 2008. Four years ago was a historic election, where there was widespread joy mostly from the fact that Americans have elected their first African American president. It made me feel good about my country, making a definitive statement on our civilization’s moral evolution. On top of that Obama’s campaign promises brought a sense of optimism about the future, that things will get better soon and America will be great again.

This year seemed like a fight just to hold on to the status quo. It feels like only one of several ominous, dark clouds have lifted. The level of impending doom has lessened, but there is still a sense that great times won’t be back anytime soon.

The election did lay some of the foundation for the recovery. The Senate will have a new conscience in Elizabeth Warren (perhaps she can replace Reid in 2015). Maryland and Maine voters chose to extend their states’ policies of recognizing and encouraging contracts of mutual care (i.e. marriages) to include same-sex couples. Colorado and Washington are moving toward no longer putting people in cages for holding a plant. A wave of election manipulation attempts is likely to prompt election reform.

In the next four years, Justices Ginsburg and Breyer can retire in peace, while Scalia, Kennedy, and Thomas will be harassed by new, elite teams of bodyguards, doctors, nutritionists, and personal trainers thrust upon them as an unwanted gift from the furthest corners of the right-wing elite. (I do feel sorry for them that they have probably eaten their last donuts).

The immediate future will resemble the partisan brinksmanship of 2011. No, President Obama, their fever will not break. You’re as wrong about that as I was in thinking you stood a better chance of governing because the Republicans really hate Hillary.

That’s enough text for an instant reaction. I’m sure more is coming.

Open Letter to the Networks: Don’t “Call” a Winner in Ohio Tonight

Politics 1 Response »

Nov 062012

Members of the media,

You are well aware that this is a close election, and that the winner of the electoral count will likely depend on the outcome in an equally close Ohio. This American is concerned about you prematurely “calling” a winner in the buckeye state. I am worried that a certain candidate may lack the spine to stand up for his supporters who stood in lines for hours to cast a votes that may remain uncounted.

In short, because Ohio by law does not count provisional ballots until more than a week after election day, the media uses an estimate of provisional ballot results based on recent (2004, 2008) elections’ totals. This year, the partisan allocation and total number of provisional ballots in Ohio will possibly be very different than the numbers used in your flawed estimate.

According to several reports, today’s vote has seen an explosion in the number of provisional ballots cast in Ohio. For one example, see here.

As, I have previously written:

Voters facing challenges on election day may be directed to use provisional ballots. It sounds like a fair compromise. Your provisional ballot will still count right? Well, yes and no. It will likely be counted … eventually. It will not be counted for the purposes of “calling” a winner for Ohio on election night. The candidate will have to decide whether to concede by comparing the margin of victory to the number of outstanding provisional ballots left uncounted. These numbers they rely on are not an official count, but based on a form of media estimate. The procedure used by the media for calling an election is unprepared for an abnormal spike in the number of provisional ballots.

For example the Associated Press (AP) does not wait for provisional ballots when reporting unofficial results (calling the winner) on election night, but at least they know it is an issue and try to account for it in their numbers:

Race callers also need procedures to track provisional votes, an election night wrinkle that grew out of the post-2000 election reforms. AP held back from calling Ohio—and with it the presidency—in 2004 because of the uncertainty over how many provisional ballots had been cast and how they might break. This year, there will be provisional voting history from 2004, 2006 and 2008 to guide race callers in close elections.

There is the problem. They are making a huge assumption that the number of provisional ballots and their outcomes will track with recent election years.

Again, we’ve seen the reports today showing it is likely we’re going to have a much larger number of provisional ballots cast this election than in 2008. Consider this if you’re not convinced yet. In 2008, the Ohio elections were overseen by Democrats Ted Strickland (governor) and Jennifer Brunner (secretary of state). The 2012 election is run by Republicans John Kasich (governor) and the notorious Jon Husted.

That team added this wrinkle, among others, to Ohio’s election process.

A new wild card this year is the [Ohio] secretary of state sent out absentee ballot applications to everyone in the state. Anyone who asked for an absentee ballot, but hasn’t returned one, if they go to the polls, they will have to cast a provisional ballot. This could add thousands of people, casting provisional ballots which won’t be counted until November 17.

So, Major Networks, Media, etc., you are on notice that the American people are aware of your election “calling” practices, and we know how flawed they are this year. Do not take the outcome into your hands tonight. If it is that close, do what you can to stay out of the way and let the votes be counted.

Electionmania 2012: Covering the Breaking News Chaos on Election Day

Politics 1 Response »

Nov 062012

We’ve finally made it to election day. I’ll launch the election day live blog coverage with some good news: While the election battle may continue, the swarm of campaign ads on TV will end TODAY. That’s a true victory for all Americans.

Today the main event has commenced.
Obama v. Romney

First off, we head to Ohio where Secretary of State Jon Husted continues to try to come up with new ways to tilt the election. He has instructed election officials to install a last minute software patch to voting machines in 30 counties. The software patch is described as experimental and has not been certified. A lawsuit has been filed and a hearing was set to begin at 9:00 a.m. See coverage here and here.

10:15 UPDATE:
There is an allegation of problems with touch screen voting in Pennsylvania that is starting to get a lot of attention:

I’m the guy who shot the video, hopefully this doesn’t get burried. You guys have questions, I have answers.

My wife and I went to the voting booths this morning before work. There were 4 older ladies running the show and 3 voting booths that are similar to a science fair project in how they fold up. They had an oval VOTE logo on top center and a cartridge slot on the left that the volunteers used to start your ballot.

I initially selected Obama but Romney was highlighted. I assumed it was being picky so I deselected Romney and tried Obama again, this time more carefully, and still got Romney. Being a software developer, I immediately went into troubleshoot mode. I first thought the calibration was off and tried selecting Jill Stein to actually highlight Obama. Nope. Jill Stein was selected just fine. Next I deselected her and started at the top of Romney’s name and started tapping very closely together to find the ‘active areas’. From the top of Romney’s button down to the bottom of the black checkbox beside Obama’s name was all active for Romney. From the bottom of that same checkbox to the bottom of the Obama button (basically a small white sliver) is what let me choose Obama. Stein’s button was fine. All other buttons worked fine.

I asked the voters on either side of me if they had any problems and they reported they did not. I then called over a volunteer to have a look at it. She him hawed for a bit then calmly said “It’s nothing to worry about, everything will be OK.” and went back to what she was doing. I then recorded this video.

Pennsylvania Voting Machine Switches Votes to Romney

The video may be simply a case of an isolated machine that needs to be calibrated. However, I do notice how these touch screen voting machines are not friendly to the growing number of fat-fingered citizens.

10:25 UPDATE

Here comes another story from Pennsylvania Continue reading »

Some Thoughts Heading into Election Day

Humor, Politics No Responses »

Nov 022012

As America recovers from one disaster, here’s hoping we don’t get another next week.

In these last days before the election, the consensus is a close race. Hopefully, we can avoid a repeat of 2000′s recount madness lasting into December. Although, a conclusion on December 21st would be quite amusing, given the Mayan prophecy hype. But a more stable scenario would be having this thing decided before midnight on election day. If your election lasts more than 4 hours, seek immediate medical attention.

Since the expectation is a close contest, efforts to skew the results remain a threat. Fortunately, organized voter suppression efforts have gotten enough attention to spark a backlash and actually cause increased voter determination. On the other hand, perhaps it has been quiet during early voting because the suppression efforts are focusing their resources on election day itself. Remember, if you are confronted by a frivolous challenge, always keep your cool, take the issue to the supervising election official, call your local election board AND 1-866-OUR-VOTE to report it, and do not accept a provisional ballot without an argument.

Even when voters have navigated any gauntlet of vote truthers trying to block their vote, there remains the possibility of the election results being skewed in the counting process. This ranges from the media making a premature “call” of a key state (causing a weak loser candidate to concede) to electronic ballot tampering. Currently, the mainstream (corporate) media is consigning electronic election fraud/theft to the “conspiracy theory” bucket. They are right that it would be so outrageous that it seems to fit with other topics in said bucket. But their dismissal of the idea would be highly appreciated by those who would make the attempt, since doing so would be easier in the cover of darkness provided by the media’s darkness of coverage. The mainstream (corporate) media has, at best, scoffed at those who raise the issue. In one such controversy, the elite media fails to pick up the subtle difference between saying something can happen versus saying something will happen (and people are trying to make it happen).

I can see the logic in the press looking the other way on this (for now). If a famous reporter reports on election fraud allegations, and the alleged cheater wins, guess who loses any insider access to the winning administration in 2013? It’s about putting your career ahead of the interests of the republic. So much for traditional journalism principles.

Obama Romney Smackdown 2012

That’s just a few things to watch for on the big day, Tuesday.

October 22nd Presidental Debate Analysis

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Oct 232012

The final 2012 presidential debate was held last night. Again, the winner is not the American people. Here are some thoughts and clips from the transcript at The Washington Post.

First up, Governor Romney:

ROMNEY: … also help the Muslim world.

And how do we do that? A group of Arab scholars came together, organized by the U.N., to look at how we can help the — the world reject these — these terrorists. And the answer they came up with was this:

One, more economic development. We should key our foreign aid, our direct foreign investment, and that of our friends, we should coordinate it to make sure that we — we push back and give them more economic development.
Number two, better education.
Number three, gender equality.
Number four, the rule of law. We have to help these nations create civil societies.

Sounds great, Mitt. I only wish you would support those things in America, too.

OBAMA: Governor Romney, I’m glad that you recognize that Al Qaida is a threat, because a few months ago when you were asked what’s the biggest geopolitical threat facing America, you said Russia, not Al Qaida; you said Russia, in the 1980s, they’re now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because, you know, the Cold War’s been over for 20 years.

That would have been a great line, but he stumbled over it. I know, I know: He’s the president, not a stand-up comedian. Continue reading »

October 22nd Presidential Debate Preview

Politics No Responses »

Oct 222012

The third (and, thankfully, final) presidential debate will be devoted to foreign policy topics. Expect to hear a lot about Governor Romney’s love of American Exceptionalism. As I’ve written before American Exceptionalism is a loaded, dog-whistle term that serves as an excuse for misadventure abroad and inaction at home.

President Obama will likely remind us about his work to end the war in Iraq. He will not remind us about his promise four years ago to close the “terrorist” storage facility at Guantanamo Bay.

Expect both to get into a pissing contest over who loves Israel more.

If President Obama increases his debate aggressiveness again tonight, he may try to compare and contrast his and Governor Romney’s world police tough guy cred. It might go something like this:

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